Former Vice President and presidential nominee Joe Biden greets supporters at his childhood home in Scranton, Pennsylvania on November, 3, 2020.
  • If Jo Biden secures the Keystone State's 20 electoral votes, he will clear the required 270 electoral votes needed to win while the other results are coming in.
  • Elsewhere, results are taking longer in Nevada and Arizona, but Joe Biden hanging on to his lead in both of those states would also put him over the top.
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Former Vice President Joe Biden's home state of Pennsylvania could decide the 2020 election, with the Democratic nominee chipping away at President Donald Trump's lead as ballots were counted overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.

There are still other states in play, but if Biden secures the Keystone State's 20 electoral votes, he will clear the required 270 electoral votes needed to win while the other results are coming in.

By Insider's count with our partners at Decision Desk HQ, a Biden win in Pennsylvania would put him at 273 electoral votes, meaning he could lose Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina but still come out on top.

Here's what we can expect: 

  • DDHQ has not called Pennsylvania yet, but if Biden overtakes Trump's lead, you can probably expect major media outlets to swoop in and call both the state and the race for the former VP in fairly short order
    • Because of the location and nature of the remaining votes in Pennsylvania — mainly coming from the Philadelphia area and mail-in votes, both of which where Biden overperforms — it would be extremely difficult for Trump to regain the lead just based on the order of the count. Trump's best precincts are already in.
  • Nevada's mail-in votes still won't be counted until Friday but those should also lean more heavily toward Biden and help him keep his lead there.
  • Arizona is also taking a while, with Trump still able to come out ahead there. However, he faces a steep deficit and would need to continue to reliably outperform Biden among remaining ballots to claw it back.
  • If Arizona and Nevada hold for Biden, that would put him right at 270 electoral votes and give him the presidency even if the other uncalled states don't break for him.
  • Biden is bit by bit gaining on Trump in the last batches of ballots being counted in Georgia, and a win there would put him at 269 electoral votes, according to DDHQ's tally so far. Georgia could very well complete its count soon, if not on Thursday
  • North Carolina is still too close to call. Out of all the remaining states, it's looking like Trump's best chance for a pickup. We won't have new votes from them until November 12. 
  • Even if Trump sweeps Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, Biden would still win with 270 electoral votes if he hangs onto his leads in Nevada and Arizona.
  • The earliest possible call for Biden to win the race appears to be in the scenario where he overtakes Trump in Pennsylvania at some point on Thursday since the likelihood of Trump being able to get a surge from Philadelphia later on is so remote. That, or a call in his favour in Georgia plus a call in Nevada, though that's a little more complicated and contingent on him making up the deficit in Georgia. 
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