Trump's best selling point for reelection in 2020 is looking stronger than ever
- President Donald Trump has made the strength of the economy a key part of his 2020 reelection strategy.
- Trump got more ammunition for that argument with the higher-than-expected first quarter GDP numbers on Friday.
- GDP came in at 3.2% for the first quarter, much higher than the 2.3% expected by economists.
- Voters are also generally favorable towards Trump's handling of the economy.
- So the strong numbers help build Trump's best argument for 2020.
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Friday's strong GDP report wasn't just good news for the US economy, it's also a good sign for President Donald Trump as he sets his sights on reelection in 2020.
The Commerce Department said first quarter GDP hit 3.2%, well above the 2.3% print that economists expected.
While there are a handful of reasons that the strong GDP number may be temporary, the growth came after early concerns that the first quarter's growth was going to be disastrous.
At one point in early March, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracker estimated that first quarter GDP was on track to finish below 0.5%. But instead, we got the strongest first quarter print since 2015.
Trump's made the strong economy one of the central themes of his pitch to voters, and the Friday's GDP number provided the president another occasion to crow about the US's resiliency.
"GDP is an incredible number. But remember this: Not only that, we have a great growth - which is growth. We have great growth and also very, very low inflation," Trump told reporters. "Our economy is doing great. Number one in the world. We're number-one economy right now in the world and it's not even close."
And the argument seems to be resonating voters. While Trump's approval rating is still weak, polls show that a majority of Americans approve of his handling of the economy and many voters give Trump's policies a hefty amount of credit for the country's economic strength.
While the tie between economic performance and elections has frayed in the recent past, the health of the US economy has generally been a good predictor for elections. And the ability to point to raising wages and strong GDP numbers is a strong case for Trump to bring to voters. In fact, some predictive models give Trump a runaway chance at reelection, mainly based on the economy's upside.
Democrats are also keenly aware of the boost that Trump could get from the economy. Many in the party, including former President Barack Obama, have argued that Trump is simply benefitting from the reforms made during the Obama's time following the financial crisis.
But making that case may not be as compelling as Trump's message. Celina Lake, a leading Democratic strategist, told Politico that the president's economic message is much stronger than Democrats' at this early juncture in the 2020 cycle.
"We will tend to talk about things like paid leave and equal pay - and those things are all very popular policies," Lake said. "But they don't add up to an economic message that is robust enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who talks about a very robust economic policy."
This isn't to say the economy couldn't slow down. In fact many economists expect the boost from the GOP-led and Trump-supported tax cuts will begin to fade in the latter part of the year and the possibility of an economically-damaging trade war still lingers.
But so far US GDP has outpaced expectations and with a strong labor market, rising wages, and strong consumer confidence, there's a good chance that Trump will have the benefit of a strong economy by the time the 2020 election rolls around.
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