• As the trade conflict between the US and China rumbles on, winners and losers are starting to emerge from the conflict which has seen the two nations swap tariffs on more than $200 billion (R2.7 billion) of goods.
  • Brazil has seen exports to China jump as a result of the stopping of US soybean exports to China thanks to the trade war.
  • Beside the USA, Germany has suffered the most of any major economy.

As the trade conflict between the US and China rumbles on, winners and losers are starting to emerge from the conflict which has seen the two nations swap tariffs on more than R2.7 trillion of goods.

This week alone, data showed trade in pork meat from the US to China plunged last year, and Volkswagen's CEO warned that the trade war is hurting global demand for cars. While parts of both the Chinese and US economies have benefitted and seen setbacks, which international economies have been impacted by the trade war.

The chart below, compiled by HSBC in a note about the German economy this week, shows the winners and the losers of the trade war so far. It looks at the large global economies that have seen imports to China grow the most in the face of tariffs on US goods.

For instance, Brazil has seen exports to China jump as a result of the stopping of US soybean exports to China thanks to the trade war. China turned instead to Brazil for its oilseed, causing a major spike in Brazilian exports of the agricultural commodity.

Russia has also seen a major benefit, filling the gap left behind in Chinese oil demand when US exports dried up. Prior to the imposition of tariffs, China accounted for more than 20% of US oil exports, but fell to practically zero after tariffs came into play, with Russia taking a large proportion of the slack.

Beside the USA, Germany has suffered the most of any major economy. "Trade is leading the way down and dragged on growth in Q2 and Q3 2018," HSBC's team of analysts wrote.

"Slower German export growth is unsurprising given a slowing in trade-weighted demand (ie global growth weighted by share of Germany's trading partners)."

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