- An insurance company says your probability of being hijacked or having your car stolen remains lowest in the Northern Cape and Limpopo.
- That is despite spikes of more than 27% in carjackings in both those provinces in the last year.
- Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal both saw declines in hijackings last year – but remain more dangerous for those in cars even after correcting for population.
- For mores stories go to Business Insider South Africa.
The Northern Cape and Limpopo both saw increases in the number of hijackings reported there in the last year – but remain the safest places to own and drive a car.
In the Northern Cape your probability of being hijacked or having your car stolen is just 0.2%, insurance company Naked calculates, while in Limpopo that probability is 0.4%.
In both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, meanwhile, the probability is 1%, meaning that every year one out of every 100 cars are either stolen or hijacked.
Naked calculated probabilities of vehicle theft by combining numbers from the eNatis database of registered vehicles with the 2018/2019 crime statistics released by the SA Police Service (SAPS).
See also: Police say bank robberies are down 70% in South Africa. South African banks say they doubled.
The statistical probabilities across the different provinces were consistent with the crime patterns it can see in its own claim statistics, the company says.
The probabilities are in sharp contrast to the changes the SAPS reported in carjackings across provinces between the most recent year and the previous year. Limpopo and the Northern Cape saw big jumps in the number of carjackings reported, 27.2% and 27.6% respectively.
In the most dangerous provinces by Naked's calculations, meanwhile, hijackings decreased. In KwaZulu-Natal the decline was bigger than in any other province at 10.9%, and in Gauteng there were 4% fewer hijackings than in the year before.
A police analysis of a subset of the hijackings reported last year showed that nearly half of all incidents took place in townships, and another big chunk of hijackings took place in suburbs. Only 5.5% of all hijackings took place outside built-up areas – of which the Northern Cape has very few, and Limpopo has relatively few.
See also: The South African Police Service has quietly launched a crime-fighting app – which asks for your name and address before you submit tipoffs
The police statistics suggest that the newer and more expensive cars to be found in economic powerhouse provinces such as Gauteng have little to do with the their higher rates of hijacking.
Docket analysis showed that 31.1% of hijacked cars were at least 10 years old, and two thirds of hijacked vehicles were worth less than R200,000.
"The older model vehicles are often hijacked for spare parts or used as local taxis operating within townships," the SAPS said in its analysis.
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